Bolsonaro rides right-wing surge into Brazil's election runoff

Brazil's Flavio Bolsonaro heads to an October 25 runoff election in first place and buoyed by sweeping gains in Congress, leaving President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva with a tough battle to win a fourth term.

In a surprise result that defied opinion polls, Bolsonaro finished two percentage points ahead of the veteran leftist Lula and outperformed the first-round election results of his father, the far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro.

The 45-year-old Bolsonaro, who was little known until a few months ago, pitched himself as more moderate than his firebrand father, who is still revered among many on the right and whose legacy loomed large over the campaign.

Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup to prevent Lula from taking power in 2023. His family and supporters believe he is the victim of political persecution.

The coup bid and a corruption probe against Flavio Bolsonaro did little to sway voters fed up with crime, violence and the battle to make ends meet in Latin America's biggest economy.

The result pushed the Sao Paulo stock market up almost nine percent at midday, as the Ibovespa index reached an all-time high above 200,000 points.

Jerson Zanlorenzi, head of the equities and derivatives desk at BTG Pactual, told AFP the market saw Bolsonaro as "more aligned with Brazil's economic and fiscal needs."

Bolsonaro has promised fiscal austerity in the face of rising public debt, plus a smaller state, lower taxes and a tougher crackdown on crime.

Bolsonaro's pitch to Brazilians echoes those that have won over voters in Argentina, Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile, Peru and Colombia, among others, who have elected right-wing presidents in recent years.

Since Brazil's first direct presidential election in 1989 after a 21-year military dictatorship, every first-round leader has gone on to win the presidency.

- 'Tsunami' against Lula -

Political analyst Thomas Traumann told AFP the election Sunday had shown a "tsunami of anti-PT sentiment," referring to Lula's Worker's Party, which has governed for much of the past two decades.

This has made Bolsonaro "the favorite to win the presidency, and it could leave him in an even stronger position to govern than his father," he said.

Lula will have to woo those who cast blank votes and the 33 million people who abstained -- representing 21 percent of registered voters.

Lesser candidates who garnered almost eight percent of the vote are mostly right-leaning.

Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) nearly doubled its seats in the Senate. Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro won a place in the upper house of Congress.

"The end of the era of Lula's Workers' Party has been decreed," a triumphant Bolsonaro declared on Sunday in Brasilia.

- Extra time win? -

While Lula is revered for social programs that have lifted millions out of poverty, he and the party remain haunted by massive corruption scandals. And promises to tackle problems like violence and organized crime, which have grown in recent years, fell flat among jaded voters.

During Lula's third term in office, inflation has come under control and unemployment fell to historic lows.

However, Brazilians complain about a loss of purchasing power and authorities are concerned about rising household debt.

But the 80-year-old has vowed to fight for what he says is a choice between democracy and the "barbarism" of the far right.

"I admit I was convinced I would win in the first round. The game is about to start. In extra time, we will win over the Brazilian people," Lula said Sunday.

Lula's campaign focused heavily on his historical legacy.

He also honed in on the theme of Brazilian sovereignty in the face of pressure from US President Donald Trump, a Jair Bolsonaro ally who has championed a swing to the right in Latin America.

Analysts say this may have been a miscalculation.

"Brazilians are concerned with concrete matters, such as supermarket prices, the fear of being mugged, and credit card debt, rather than abstract concepts like sovereignty or Lula's historical significance," said Traumann.

Trump, who has wielded tariffs and sanctions to put pressure on Brasilia on a variety of complaints, responded to the result by praising Brazil's rapid electronic vote count, without mentioning either candidate.